TFP Transparent Forex Profits LLC
| Risk Disclosure * .Unique experiences and past performances do not guarantee future results! Testimonials herein are unsolicited .and are non-representative of all clients; certain accounts may have worse performance than that indicated. .Trading spot currencies involves substantial risk and there is always the potential for loss. Your trading results .may vary. Because the risk factor is high in the foreign exchange market trading, only genuine "risk " funds .should be used in such trading. If you do not have the extra capital that you can afford to lose you should not be .trading the foreign exchange market. No "safe" trading system has ever been devised, and no one can guarantee .profits or freedom from loss." |
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Benefit From Our March Madness Program & Use Hedge Loss Protection In Your Own Trading Click On Banner Above To Access More Performance Records |
This Page Reviews Each Week In March Our Performance Highlighted Originally On Forxprofit.com's Homepage And Demonstrates Why Hedge Resources Are Offerred By 100 Brokers |
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Past Week's Summary Written By Keith Feb 28 Through March 5 Day By Day-- Trade By Trade Record Week # 1 Ending, March 5 We Started Out Monday, March 1st Looking For A Buying Opportunity. We opened a Buy USDJPY @ 89.40 on Monday 1 PM Market traded sideways rest of Monday & we opened a protective Sell {hedge} USDJPY @ 89.20 on Monday 11 PM Market fell Tuesday March 3 and we closed Sell {hedge} USDJPY @ 88.60 for $600 profit at 2 PM Tuesday March 3 Market continued to move sideways rest of Tuesday, so we re-opened Sell protective {hedge} USDJPY @ 88.60 Market did fall and on Thursday March 4 at 2 AM we closed Sell {hedge} @ 88.20 for $400 profit At 10 AM March 4, Thursday market began to rise & opened Buy USDJPY @ 88.90 And because we had two Buys open we also opened a Sell protective {hedge} USDJPY @ 89.00 at 10 AM Market seemed to stall on Thursday & so at 2 PM we opened a balancing Sell {hedge} USDJPY @ 89.20 This was in advance of volatile event risk Non Farm Payroll report to be announced at 8:30 AM Friday, March 5 There was no way we were going to be vulnerable to bad jobs #'s with a Buy bias in our account, so because we am not speculators and because risk management is our 1st priority, we balanced our positions prior to the jobs announcement. Performance Summary Week # 1, ending March 5th. Two closed Sell {hedge} trades =$1000 Profit Two Buy positions & two Sell positions fully hedged with a net break even value Open Positions Buy USDJPY @ 89.40/Sell USDJPY @ 89.00 Net Value = -$400 Buy USDJPY @ 88.80/Sell USDJPY @ 89.20 Net Value = +$400 _________________ Open Positions Value = Break Even How do you know that each trade was made when indicated? Two ways. First, you can use Twitter on our website which is time/date stamped. Scroll back through the log and you will see each trade logged as indicated here. Another twitter resource is direct at www.twitter.com/forxprofit Additionally, at the end of the month we will post records here online which confirm each trade and profit/loss was recorded by broker. Also, we are storing our real time notes from our website made during the week on this special page. These are copied immediately below from our home page recorded during the week exactly as they were entered. |
These notes were originally posted in real time during week #1 on our home page last week trade by trade You can confirm each posting by scrolling back through our Twitter record located both on our home page and at www.twitter.com/forxprofit We also have a Facebook log on our home page and we will post the account records at end of March Keith's Strategy Notes: Our perspective preceding each trade is detailed here. See how we did in real time. Note # 1 March 1st 10 AM:The global financial markets are emerging from the Great Recession and financial crisis of 2008/2009. Will the USD continue to be a risk averse safe haven? And gain on bad news? Current markets are slightly unstable and highly sensitive to event risk ************************* Monday News Announcements Monday 8:30 AM Core Inflation Monthly 0% Monday 10 AM US Mfg. below expectations 56.5 ************************* Both News Events Are USDJPY Negative ************************* I am watching to see if USDJPY will move below 89.00 for a Buy--- Or move higher where I will have to Buy if it touches 89.40. Waiting...........Monday 10 AM Note # 2 March 1st 1 PM Opened Buy USDJPY @ 89.40 @ 11 AM I will be looking to hedge that position should the market fall below its opening Sunday of 88.80 Note #3 March 1st 11 PM Opened Sell {hedge} USDJPY @ 89.20 @ 11 PM Monday For more than 24 hours market has been moving sideways. This hedge will provide downside loss protection for my original Buy. This hedge trade adds zero margin deduction from the broker. It also effectively freezes the account equity Note #4 March 2, 2 PM Closed the Sell {hedge} for $600 Profit @ 88.60. If the market rises, the Buy will gain equity value for the account from the closed Sell level of 88.60. Note #5 March 2 10 PM Opened a new Sell {hedge} @ 88.60 primarily because of the Asia, European session overnight and the minor league jobs report due out tomorrow morning, USDJPY may see downside pressure. Note #6 March 4 2 AM Closed the remaining Sell {hedge} USDJPY @ 88.20 for $400 profit. Non Farm Payrolls on Friday are important news event risk. I will need to be ready to hedge on downside again if necessary. I am currently one position long USDJPY from 88.20. Note #7 March 4 10 AM Opened a Buy USDJPY @ 88.90 And a Sell {hedge} USDJPY @ 89.00 Leaving a single Buy bias from 89.00 levels As market spiked on positive productivity news Market is very event risk sensitive Non Farm Payrolls Looming Friday AM I expect them to be somewhat positive Note #8 March 4 2 PM Opened a second Sell {hedge} @ 89.20 As market stalled at 89.20 after 100 pip spike higher today I do expect the market to move more or less sideways overnight waiting for the NFP report in US Friday 8:30 AM Recap as of 03/04 2 PM total performance so far in March The Sell USDJPY @89.20 hedged vs the Buy USDJPY @ 88.80 = +$400 The Sell USDJPY @ 89.00 hedged vs the Buy USDJPY @ 89.40 = -$400 The 2 closed hedges = a net closed trade gain and equity value of $+1000 today as of 2 PM {march 4} Note #9 March 5 5 PM Close Of Markets The Two Closed Sell Hedge Trades Net = $1000 The 4 Open Trades Are 2 Hedged Positions. They Are: Sell 89.00/Buy 89.40 = - $400 Sell 89.20/Buy 88.80 = + $400 The benefit of hedging is that regardless of the fact that the market has spiked to a higher level closing on Friday March 5 @ 90.30, The two hedged positions above can be closed at any point for a break even on net. Hedges effectively {although not totally} freeze the account equity regardless of market levels. Net Results From Week # 1 Of March Madness +$1,000 For Charts & Additional Details Of Our Hedging Strategy Scroll Down Page Here |
Keith's Own Working Chart Notes Below Are Referenced from the notes {above} he made during the week on his home page. |
Getting Started/Chart For Final Week In February Market Had Fallen From 92.00 to 89.00 on Friday, Feb 25th. |
| Keith's Trade Strategy To Start Week At Left Sunday Feb 28, 6 PM See More of Keith's Notes Below |
Week's Opening Note Feb. 28th, Sunday: The USDJPY market is due to open at 88.80 levels. This is a buying opportunity and I will be looking for opportunities to open Buy positions at the best possible {meaning lowest} market levels. I want to see if market opens slightly lower toward 88.50 to open the best available new Buy positions in USDJPY. Keith Long {Author, Financial Journalist} |
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The Strategy Behind Our Successful Performance For Week # 1, Feb 28 Through March 5, Is Explained Here. The chart for the 1st week of March Madness is below. Even though a Buy USDJPY @ 89.40 {the high for the following 72 hours} was opened early Monday, Two protective hedge trades created $1,000 in profits, even as the market moved lower against the Buy. As risk managers whose 1st priority is capital preservation Here are the principles of forex account management we used in March Madness week #1 Event Risk in the markets Is part of Risk Management. 1. We are not speculators. We would not speculate on the non farm payroll numbers on Friday and therefore, we were hedged as the US government announcement was made and a spike of over 150 pips resulted. 2. Furthermore we do not chase markets. Once the spike was apparent, our professional risk management dictated that our clients would benefit from trade initiation in a stable market more than from a manager who was chasing spiking markets. Additionally, we had already booked $1,000 profits for our clients this week. 3. We are not greedy and we are not risky. We are professional managers as our performance confirms. 4. One More Point--We use our hedged positions to freeze account values. Therefore on Friday regardless of the spike that occurred. No account equity was lost from a hedged account during volatile market movement. In fact, we anticipate market volatility and know from experience it can be hard to get fills to protect an exposed position in volatile markets. Therefore we will hedge our positions to protect against unexpected and unforeseeable losses in unpredictable and volatile markets. That is a another benefit of hedging. Keith Long |
| These Notes Below Are Transferred From Our Home Page & Preserved Here As a Record Available For Everyone To Review These Are Contemporaneous Notes Made Week By Week During March On Our Home Page Starting With Week #4 Immediately Below |
These notes are made contemporaneously during the week #2 by Keith March Madness Posts For Week # 2, March 7 Through March 12, Begins Here. The chart for the start of Week #2 for March Madness is below. As risk managers our 1st priority is capital preservation The market is starting our Week #2 in a tight trading range so no trades were opened initially. While we are waiting for our first trade this week? Here are the principles of our forex account management you will find in our March Madness success Event Risk in the markets Is part of Risk Management. Primarily news and government reports 1. We are not speculators. For example, we would not speculate on non farm payroll numbers announcements, and therefore, we are typically hedged as highly volatile US government announcements are made and our accounts are not at risk amid the volatility that often results. Hedging permits us to freeze account equity without closing a trade 2. Furthermore we do not chase markets. Occasionally a spike is apparent, but our professional risk management dictates that clients would benefit from trade initiation in a stable market environment more than from a manager who is chasing spiking markets. 3. We are not greedy and we are not risky. We are professional managers as our performance confirms. 4. One More Time-- Volatile Markets. As noted, we may use our hedged positions to freeze account values. Account equity is effectively protected with a hedged account during volatile market movement. In fact, we anticipate market volatility and know from experience it can be hard to get fills to protect any exposed positions in volatile markets. Therefore we will hedge our positions to protect against unexpected and unforeseeable losses in unpredictable and volatile markets. That is a another benefit of hedging. Keith Long Week #2 Our first trade is entered Note #1 March 10th Wednesday 10 AM;Closed Buy USDJPY opened @ 88.80 on March 4 this morning at 10 AM March 10 @ 90.70 for +$1900 profit. Currently have an exposed Sell {hedge} USDJPY opened @ 89.00 on March 4 which may accumulate profits from the closed point of 90.70 if market falls from the 90.70 level where the Buy was just closed out. Explanation to follow. {have to return to markets}. Note #2 March 10th Wednesday 2 PM; Back from trading screen. One of the benefits of hedge strategies is that we can close out a Buy as we did this morning for a profit and leave the hedged Sell part of that hedged position open and allow that Sell to add value for the account if the market drops from the 90.70 level where we closed the Buy, with the Sell trade still open, we will add value for the account every step of the way. The Sell {hedge} USDJPY was opened on 03/04 at 89.00. The Buy USDJPY was opened on 03/04 at 88.80. If the remaining Sell USDJPY follows the market all the way down to 89.50 and we elect to close it at that point? Our profits are as follows; Buy USDJPY = +$1900 {opened at 88.80/closed at 90.70 Sell USDJPY = -$500 {opened at 89.00/closed at 89.50} Net Profit = +$1400 So we opened a Buy on March 4 last week and the market went against our Buy almost immediately. But instead of stopping out the Buy for a loss, we used a Sell {hedge} to freeze the account values and give us the opportunity to generate a profit from what was originally a losing position. The hedging resource allowed us to stop the bleeding and wait for an opportunity to make profits from a potential loss. Reminder, the Sell {hedge} opened at 89.00 on March 4 at 9 AM is still open as of Wednesday 3 PM March 10. We will have to see what happens. Note #3 March 10th 9 PM Wednesday Opened Buy USDJPY @ 90.30 To explain how hedging works, see the Notes #1 & #2 above as a reference. Earlier this AM I closed out a Buy at 90.70. This Buy was half of a hedged position. The other half was a Sell USDJPY @ 89.00. I left the Sell by itself then from the 90.70 level at 2 PM this afternoon when I closed the Buy. By 9 PM the market had fallen to 90.30. I elected to open a Buy to provide a hedge for the remaining single Sell @ 89.00. I opened this Buy USDJPY @ 90.30 a few minutes ago. The movement of 40 pips from 90.70 where the Sell was left alone as a single trade to 90.30 where a Buy was just now opened to hedge the position once again generated a $400 addition to the account equity {40 pips x $10/pip = $400}. Note #4 March 10th 10 PM Wednesday; The market may continue moving lower toward and perhaps lower than 90.00 overnight. Nevertheless, I chose a conservative strategy and took the profits available rather than risk the profits earned to try and capture all of the profits from this move today. Note #5 March 11th Thursday 8 AM; Market has some undercurrents of improving employment in the US. If new unemployment claims #s come out this AM very low USDJPY can move toward 93.00 short term. Note #6 March 11 Thursday 3 PM; US unemployment claims exactly met expectations so the market predictably is trading sideways since the AM. I am expecting USDJPY market to stay below 91.00 levels absent positive news for remainder of week and into next week #3. Note #7 March 11 Thursday 7 PM; Closed the Buy USDJPY opened at 90.30 above {wed 03/10--9 PM} @ 90.70 for +$400 Profit. I will allow the remaining Sell {hedge} opened at 89.20 on 03/04 to give me the opportunity to accumulate equity for the accounts if market declines from the 90.70 level. I may close this Sell {hedge} out at a loss since it would have served its purpose of permitting the substantial profits from two Buys +$1900 & +$400. Note #8 March 12 Friday 6 AM; Opened another Buy USDJPY @ 90.30 this morning for another +$400 profit. I have twice this week opened a Buy @ 90.30, and have closed 2 Buys at at 90.70 for profits. I am not timing the market. I am applying the principle of risk management known as "Don't get greedy." What allows me to take profits on Buy positions in a trade range bound market like this weeks? Is the ability to hedge my Buy trades if necessary. Having the resource of hedging allows me to be profitable in range bound markets. So far the USDJPY has traded within a range of only 100 pips. Very unusual for this market, where it can move and usually does 100 pips in 24 hours. Thank you for hedging. Including the open positions {4 trades = 2 hedged positions} Week #2 Net Profit = +$800. Remember each 1 pip in a Full Lot Trade in USDJPY Market = $10 {approx.} {pending trades values are included in net profit figures} |
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| Notes From Week #1 Begin Here {Below} |
These notes are made contemporaneously during week # 3 by Keith March Madness Posts For Week # 3, March 14 Through March 19, Begins Here. The chart for the start of Week #3 for March Madness is below. As risk managers our 1st priority is capital preservation The chart below shows the market is essentially treading water and has been for the past 96 hours going back into last week. No Trades To Date Note #1 Monday March 15th 5 PM; While waiting for trades, here is my economic analysis and basis for strategy this week. I am expecting news announcement to exceed expectations generally with the exception of GDP for 1st quarter which will fall to 2.0% ranges from last report of 5.9%. Also, although it is announced next month April 2nd, I project non farm payrolls which last month lost 36,000 to post as high as +300,000 jobs gained when announced on April 2nd. The market is baking these expectations into their valuations of USDJPY. The Fed meeting Tuesday March 16th may include a change in wording of its long term lower interest rates environment. If that happens, USDJPY will be pressured toward 93.00 from its current 90.40 levels today. Net,net? I am expecting USDJPY to trade up past the 91.10 levels of recent highs. Having hedging resources makes taking advantage of those expectations more likely, since the USDJPY may have moments when it wants to move toward 88.00 before its move higher. Notes & Trades To Follow As Soon As Market Moves Out of Trading Range Note #2 Tuesday March 16th 11 AM. The USDJPY market is definitely looking to rise if the Fed gives it a reason to. It the Fed and Bernanke use new language suggesting they are getting closer to raising US interest rates? USDJPY will be spiking up. {please read my note below posted earlier that it is all about interest rates.} Note #3 Tuesday March 16th 3 PM; Closed the USDJPY Buy @ 90.30 when the market stood still after Fed announcement that retained same language on interest rates. USDJPY Buy @ 90.30 was closed today at 90.50 for a +$200 profit. The Buy trade was part of a hedged position so if the USDJPY market drops {as expected by me} it will add equity every step of the way from the 90.50 closing level. With Fed leaving wording on interest rates the same, I expect market to fall from recent 91.10 levels toward 89.00. Note #4 Wednesday March 17th 5 PM; Opened Buy USDJPY @ 90.20 This hedges all positions. USDJPY market has traded in this range for 5 days. Highly unusual tight range for this market. Expecting important move could be either up or down. If down? I see a floor of 88.00 area. If up? I see a top of 93.00 area. Note #5 Thursday March 18th 3 PM; News & event risk announcements failed to direct the USDJPY market this week, and as a result, the market has been in a severely constrained and tight trading range up to this moment. I am expecting a large move when breakout occurs. Because I use hedges I am not needing to speculate on which direction that breakout will be, up or down. My suspicion is the market will break toward 89.00. Note #6 Friday March 19th 4 PM; Closed USDJPY Buy 90.20 opened on Wednesday at 90.50 for +$300 profit. Here is an explanation of how to compute net value of an account using hedging or put another way here is how the broker's "equity" figure is computed. For a Full Lot account each pip = $10 {approx.} If you add up the 6 closed trades in our log table above, the net profit = +$3,800. But subtracted from that figure are the negative hedge valuations as follows: Buy USDJPY @ 89.40 Sell USDJPY @ 89.00 This hedged position has a net negative valuation of -$400 Sell USDJPY @ 89.20 Buy USDJPY@ 90.70 This hedged position has a net negative valuation of -$1,500. Therefore the total net negative valuations of the open positions which is -$1,900 The closed trade valuations are +$3,800 Subtracting open positions .........-$1,900 .. .._________ Net value for March to date . ...= +$1,900 {End of Week # 3 Notes} |
| For Table Summary of Trades During March Madness Please Go To Our Home Page |
These notes are made contemporaneously during the week by Keith March Madness Posts For Week # 4, March 21st Through March 26th, Begins Here. The chart for the start of Week #4 for March Madness is below. As risk managers our 1st priority is capital preservation The chart below shows the market is essentially treading water and has been for over the past 96 hours going back into last week. Note #1 March 22 Friday 3 AM; Opened Buy USDJPY @ 90.70 to fully hedge accounts. Expecting market to break out of 100 pip range early this week. It may go up or down, the market itself has not decided. That is why I am hedged fully early Monday March 22. Note #2 March 23rd Tuesday 6 PM; Market moving sideways for almost two weeks. Possibility of down reversal small amount. Note #3 March 24th Wednesday 2 AM; Market acting like it wants to move higher. Placed Buy {to hedge Sell} @ 90.60. Anticipating move higher. Note #4 Wednesday March 24th 9 AM; USDJPY market spiked overnight from 90.50 to 92.00. Closed Buy opened earlier at 90.60 at 90.80 for +$1,200 profit. Leaving a Sell bias {Sell 90.40} currently. Will continue to watch market closely. Housing numbers on target, suggesting no upward boost beyond 92.00, but need to monitor closely. Note #5 Wednesday March 24th 5 PM; Opened a Buy USDJPY @ 92.30 Possibility of strong move toward 93.00. Note #6 Thursday March 25th 9 PM; Opened Sell {hedge} at 92.50 Seems like move may have topped out. Want a Sell bias. Note #7 Friday March 26th 1 AM; Opened Buy USDJPY @ 92.70 On second thought, maybe move higher still has legs. :) Note #8 Friday March 26th 1 AM; Opened a Buy USDJPY @ 92.70 Note #9 Friday March 26th 8 AM; Closed Sell USDJPY opened at 92.60 for a $100 loss at level of 92.70. I want a hedged net position because I am not sure of market direction after it spent all Friday range trading. Note #10 Friday March 26th 9 AM; Opened Buy 92.70. Note #11 Friday March 26th 2 PM. I closed Buy USDJPY which I opened at 92.30 two days earlier for a $300 profit at market level 92.60. I am thinking USDJPY may reverse opening the week. Summary of March Madness So far in March I have closed 9 trades. 8 were profits and 1 was a loss. Net profits from these closed trades = $5,200. Open trades subtract from closed trades in terms of net equity for an account. If market does reverse, equity value will approach closed trade values because of the sum total of open trades currently open. Here is an explanation of how to compute net value of an account where hedging is used or put another way here is how the broker's "equity" figure is computed when there are open positions. For a Full Lot account each pip = $10 {approx.} If you add up the 6 closed trades in our log table above, the net profit = +$3,800. But subtracted from that figure are the negative hedge valuations as follows: Buy USDJPY @ 89.40 Sell USDJPY @ 89.00 This hedged position has a net negative valuation of -$400 Sell USDJPY @ 89.20 Buy USDJPY @ 90.70 This hedged position has a net negative valuation of -$1,500. Therefore the total net negative valuations of the open positions which is -$1,900 The closed trade valuations are +$3,800 Subtracting open positions .........-$1,900 .. .._________ Net value for March to date . ...= +$1,900 |
| This Page Is Used To Preserve The Previous Month's Performance Record And Notes Made Contemporaneously Day To Day. We Have Many People Studying Our Strategy/System And Many Others Who Wish To Confirm Our Trade Records. March, 2010 Had 10 Closed Trades With A Return Of 32%. click the pdf file image for the account record. click Profits/Losses Shown Are From 1 Full Lot Trading Account And A $10,000 Funded Account 1 Mini Lot Traded Accounts Are 1/10th Cash Amounts Shown |
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This Starts The Record From March 2010. These Notes Were Transferred At The End of March From Our Homepage Where They Were Displayed Week To Week. They Were Not Edited Or Changed In Any Way. They Appear Just As Keith Recorded Them During Trading In The Month of March. They Reflect His Strategy And Thoughts Contemporaneously. **************************** These notes are made contemporaneously during the week by Keith March Madness Posts For Week # 4, March 21st Through March 26th, Begins Here. The chart for the start of Week #4 for March Madness is below. As risk managers our 1st priority is capital preservation The chart below shows the market is essentially treading water and has been for over the past 96 hours going back into last week. Note #1 March 29 Monday 7 PM; Closed Sell USDJPY {which was opened at 92.70} @ 92.50 for +$200 profit. Buy bias remaining. Note #2 March 29th 8 PM; Closed Buy USDJPY {which was opened at 92.50} @ 92.30 for a $200 loss. I wanted to balance the trades net bias. Note #3 March 30th 8 AM; Opened Sell USDJPY @ 92.80 to establish a net single Sell bias in trades from 93.00 levels. Note #4 March 31st Midnight; Opened Buy USDJPY @ 93.40 and Buy USDJPY @ 93.50 in anticipation of spike move toward 94.00. Note #5 March 31st 2 AM; Opened Sell {hedge} USDJPY @ 92.20 to fully hedge positions. Market failed to follow through on up move. Summary of March Madness as of Friday March 26th So far in March I have closed 9 trades. 8 were profits and 1 was a loss. Net profits from these closed trades = $5,200. Open trades subtract from closed trades in terms of net equity for an account. If market does reverse, equity value will approach closed trade values because of the sum total of open trades currently open. Here is an explanation of how to compute net value of an account where hedging is used or put another way here is how the broker's "equity" figure is computed when there are open positions. For a Full Lot account each pip = $10 {approx.} If you add up the 6 closed trades in our log table above, the net profit = +$3,800. But subtracted from that figure are the negative hedge valuations as follows: Buy USDJPY @ 89.40 Sell USDJPY @ 89.00 This hedged position has a net negative valuation of -$400 Sell USDJPY @ 89.20 Buy USDJPY @ 90.70 This hedged position has a net negative valuation of -$1,500. Therefore the total net negative valuations of the open positions which is -$1,900 The closed trade valuations are +$3,800 Subtracting open positions .........-$1,900 .. .._________ Net value for March to date . ...= +$1,900 |
